Getting Through the Tough Times 英语阅读
Getting Through the Tough Times
I put this post under the heading poker and trading but it could just as well go under the heading of trading psychology.
Start thinking of your trading in terms of statistics and probabiities. I've aleady given you a good idea of how to do that on other posts. For example, if you think about your trading system as an R-multiple distribution, then you can simulate it and (to the extent that your sample of R-multiples is accurate, reliabile, and representative of your system's performance) determine what to expect from it in the future.
When you do such simulations you'll learn, for example, that if you have a 50% system, then in 100 trades you'll have a losing streak of 5 in a row for certain (100% probability). You'll have a 10% probability of a losing streak as long as 9 in a row. You'll have a 1% probability of a losing streak as long as 12 in a row. And you'll have a very slight chance of a losing streak (in those 100 trades) as long as 20 in a row.
I having seen many long losing streaks in my trading lately, but I certainly have in poker. In fact, one just occurred in a very short period of time. It wasn't a time in which I was making a lot of mistakes (as best I can tell), it was just a time when "luck" (or probability) was against me. I had a period in which I probably went through 30 games in a row without making money (ie., meaning I lost my stake for that game).【交易之路www.yjbys.com收集整理】
For example, I don't like to put my tournament life at stake (ie. go all in) unless I'm almost certain of winning. However, my preference doesn't always (or even usually) dictate the situtaiton.
For example, suppose I get dealt an KJ of the same suit. Of 169 possible poker hands, that is the 11th best hand you can be dealt, so I'm likely to play it. Nevertheless, with 10 players playing through the river...it still only has an 18.14% chance of winning. Yes, my poker is that precise.
However, along the way you are faced with various decisions. First, suppose I raise three times the big blind which is my standard raise. Someone else goes all in and if you call it risks most of your chips. Well, there are ten hands that are better than KJ suited and that person could easily have one of those.. including AA. Do you call? Your decision has to depend upon your assessment of that other person. During my losing streak, this decision was usually wrong. Most of the time they had a better hand and, of course, nothing happened to improve my hand.
But, of course, perhaps 40% of the time I had the better hand. When that happened, the other person usually got better cards on the flop, turn or river (often the river) and beat me.
Here is a good example, sometimes I'll play in a free tournament in which the winner has a chance to enter another tournament to win a seat at the world series of poker. There are usually 300 people in those tournaments and most of them are crazy. I do my best to avoid playing until the first 150 or so have been eliminated. However, one time I was dealt AA on the first hand. AA is the best hand out of 169 possible hands, but it only has a 33.6% chance of winning with 10 players if all of them stay until the end. I was the first to bet and I raised 3 times the big blind. The next person went all in. Six other players called the all in. What would you do with your AA under those conditions? It's absolutely the best hand, but if I call it means that my tournament life is at stake and with 8 people I only have a 41.58% chance of winning (not even 50-50). Yes, my result is huge if I win.
Okay, so I called. Of the other people who went all in, one had a KT unsuited (the 40th best hand) and another had 33 (the 53rd best hand). The other five all had worse hands. And one person had a 74 offsuit. By the time the river was turned over, a 6 5 and an 8 had turned over to give the 74 offsuit a straight. And I lost with my AA. But that's the luck factor in poker. But what do you do? Fold the best hand and give up 10% of you chips or take a 41% chance that you'll win a ton of chips?
Based upon expectancy, you take the chance -- just as you do in trading. But quite often (59%) of the time, you'll lose everything and be eliminated from the tournament.
And quite often you'll have huge streaks where that happens.
You go in the your KJ suiteed, raising times the big blind. A king comes up on the flop. You now have top pair with a good kicker. You bet the pot and then someone goes all in. Does that mean they have AA, a set, two pair, or are the bluffing with a draw or with nothing? I'll probably call the all in with high pair and a J kicker, but when your luck is bad, chances are 1) they have a better hand, which might include just a higher kicker or 2) they are bluffing with a draw and they get the draw; or 3) they are bluffing with nothing and they still get something with the next two cards. Those things can go against you many times and you must be able to survive that.
And let's say you don't want to take the chance, after the flop you have the high pair and bet the flop, but you fold later when someone else bets everything. Well, you can only afford to fold like that a few times before you are out of chips. When are a on a losing streak, you'd be surprised how often that happens as well.
But that's why position sizing is so important. You must be able to survive long losing streaks so that you can benefit from the expectancy over the short term.
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