2017年中级商务英语阅读精选讲义
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对市场而言，降息犹如毒品。它们能让人兴奋，但也能导致依赖。就像瘾君子一样，市场需要越来越大的剂量，才能达到同样的效果。
for the markets, rate cuts are like a drug. they can inspire euphoria, but can also induce dependency. markets, like addicts, need bigger and bigger doses to get the same effect.
这就为美联储(fed)圈定了市场可能会有的症状。今天，美联储将开会决定货币政策。当它今年9月降息50个基点时，曾引发市场大幅上扬。但是，由于10月仅降息25个基点，导致市场故态复萌：美国股市下跌，信贷再次紧缩。
this has framed the market’s prognosis for the federal reserve, which today meets to decide on monetary policy. when it cut by 50 basis points in september, it sparked a huge rally. but cutting by only 25bp in october prompted a relapse, as us stocks fell and credit tightened once more.
由于美联储官员承认流动性紧缩有所加剧，交易员猜测会出现经济衰退，因此，市场认为美联储将再次降息50个基点。这引发了最近的上涨。不过，这种猜测正在渐渐降温：期货价格显示市场预计降息25个基点、而非50个基点。
with fed governors admitting that the liquidity squeeze had intensified and traders betting on a recession, markets decided that another 50bp cut must be forthcoming. that sparked the latest rally. but that speculation is dimming: futures are pricing a cut of 25bp not 50bp.
为什么呢?各国央行上周听起来还很强硬。英国央行(bank of england)降低了利率，但发出了通胀警告。按兵不动的欧洲央行(european central bank)听起来更像要加息，而不是降息。
why? central banks sounded hawkish last week. the bank of england cut the bank rate but warned on inflation, and the european central bank, which was on hold, sounded closer to raising rates than cutting them.
然而，最重要的是就业数据。美联储受命实现完全就业，因此，糟糕的就业数据可以为大幅降息提供很好的借口。
most important, however, is employment data. the fed is mandated to pursue full employment, so bad jobs numbers provide great cover for a big rate cut.
上周五公布的非农就业数据无法提供这个借口。就业人数增加了9.4万人，高于此前预测的8万人。这样的数据显示，经济没有滑入衰退区间。通过调查家庭而非调查企业汇编的家庭调查甚至显示，就业增速还略有上扬。
last friday’s non-farm payrolls did not provide it. the number employed rose by 94,000, compared with forecasts of 80,000. this data refuses to slip into recession territory. the household survey, compiled by polling households rather than companies, even shows jobs growth picking up slightly.
美联储可以依据这个数据做出诊断吗?追踪企业税项拨备的公司警告称，这种就业增长似乎已经停止。 can the fed rest its diagnosis on this data? firms tracking the money companies withhold for tax purposes warn that job growth seems to have stopped.
不过，美联储并不想在市场上诱导“瘾君子文化”，也不想表现出自己害怕经济衰退。看起来，美联储最可能开具的药方是：联邦基金利率降低25个基点，并可能更大幅度降低其贷款给各银行所依据的较高的贴现率。
but the fed does not want to induce a dependency culture in the markets, and it does not want to signal that it is scared of a recession. a 25bp cut in the fed funds rate, possibly with a steeper cut to the higher discount rate, at which it lends to banks, looks the most likely prescription.
part 2
女巫的超前思维
亲爱的经济学家：
dear economist,
有一个关于古罗马末代君王塔尔坎(tarquin)的传说。一位老女巫走到塔尔坎面前，提出以高昂的价格卖给他9本预言书。塔尔坎对这一提议不以为然。女巫烧毁了其中的3本书，然后提出以原价卖给他剩下的6本。塔尔坎再次拒绝了。
there is a legend about the last king of the romans, tarquin. an old witch came to tarquin, and offered to sell him nine books of prophecy at an exorbitant price. tarquin laughed at the offer. the witch burned three of the books, and then offered to sell him the remaining six for the original price. tarquin refused again.
女巫又烧毁了3本，然后同样以最初9本的价格向塔尔坎出售剩下的3本。这一次，塔尔坎担心自己可能会错失一些宝贵的东西，于是以女巫索要的价格买下了剩余3本书。这反映了什么样的需求曲线呢?
the witch burned three more books and offered to sell tarquin the three books that were left for the original price that she had demanded for nine. this time tarquin was scared that he might be losing something precious, and bought the remaining three books for the price that the witch asked. what sort of demand curve is that?
克里斯o麦克马洪(chris mcmahon)通过电子邮件发送
chris mcmahon, by e-mail
亲爱的麦克马洪：
dear mr mcmahon,
忘掉需求曲线吧;这是一个关于经济盈余分配的`两方谈判。塔尔坎始终愿意出高价，但同时希望能够还价。女预言家("女巫"听上去让人不太舒服)则用限制供应的方法来应对，意在推升价格。
forget the demand curve; this is a two-player negotiation over the division of economic surplus. tarquin was always willing to pay a high price but hoped to get a bargain. the sibyl ("witch" is such an uncouth label) responded with a supply constriction designed to drive up the price.
塔尔坎可能会认为，这个女预言家只有一位竞争性买家，如果每位买家都只想要3本书的话，这将形成供过于求的局面。而一旦出现两位买家只有3本书可买的情况，塔尔坎明白，他正面临严峻的局面，因而抢先报出了价格。
tarquin might have thought that the sibyl had just one rival buyer, and if each buyer wanted only one trilogy, that would be a supply glut. once there was only one trilogy available for two buyers, tarquin knew he was in a serious auction and made a pre-emptive offer.
还有一种可能性是，女预言家正在解决一个所谓的持久垄断的问题。塔尔坎知道，女预言家可能会以高价向他出售3本书，然后再回头以低价出售另外3本或6本。而通过烧毁6本书，女预言家让自己能够提出一个真正要不要随你的出价。这是一种超前思维，但话说回来，她本来就是在推销预言。
another possibility is that the sibyl was dealing with the so- called durable monopoly problem. tarquin knew that the sibyl might sell him an expensive trilogy, and then come back later with a cut- price offer to buy a second or third. by destroying two trilogies, the sibyl enabled herself to make a credible, take-it-or-leave-it offer. forward-thinking stuff, but then, she was flogging prophecies.
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